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Monday, November 3, 2014

The Real Unemployment Rate

And how to calculate it.
 The real unemployment rate  is almost double the widely reported rate issued in each month's jobs report. The Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS reports on both each month, but there isn't as much media attention paid to the real unemployment rate. However, it may paint a clearer picture of true unemployment in the United States
In the widely reported unemployment rate , the BLS only counts those who have looked for a job in the past four weeks as unemployed. They're included in the labor force, because their jobless situation is only temporary (hopefully).
Once they haven't looked for a job in the past four weeks are no longer counted as unemployed or in the labor force. They are added to a group the BLS calls marginally attached.
Among them are the discouraged workers , who have given up looking for work altogether. The rest have gone back to school, gotten pregnant or become disabled. They may or may not eventually return to the labor force, depending on their circumstances.
Once they haven't looked for a job in 12 months, they're no longer counted as marginally attached.
(Source:  Definitions)

How to calculate current statisitics

In September 2014, the real unemployment rate  was 11.8%, nearly double the widely-reported unemployment rate  of 5.9%.  Here's how to calculate both.
Step 1. Calculate the official unemployment rate: 
9.262 million unemployed workers / 155.862 million in the labor force = 5.9%.
Step 2. Add in marginally attached workers: There were 2.226 million people who were marginally attached to the labor force. Add this to both the number of unemployed and the labor force.
11.488 million / 158.088 million = 7.3%.
Step 3. Add in part-time workers: There were 7.103 million people who were working part-time because they couldn't get full-time work, although they'd prefer it. Add them to the unemployed, they're already in the labor force.

Here is a comparison. The official rate is about half of what the real rate is
  • January 1994: the official rate was 6.6% vs the real rate of 11.8%
  • 1995: 5.6% vs 10.2%
  • 1996: 5.6% vs 9.8%
  • 1997: 5.3% vs 9.4%
  • 1998: 4.6% vs 8.4%
  • 1999: 4.3% vs 7.7%
  • 2000: 4.0% vs 7.1% -- when unemployment was the lowest, right before the stock market crash in March.
  • 2001: 4.2% vs 7.3%
  • 2002: 5.7% vs 9.5%
  • 2003: 5.8% vs 10.0%
  • 2004: 5.7% vs 9.9%
  • 2005: 5.3% vs 9.3%
  • 2006: 4.7% vs 8.4%
  • 2007: 4.6% vs 8.4%
  • 2008: 5.0% vs 9.2%
  • 2009: 7.8% vs 14.2%
  • 2010: 9.8% vs 16.7% -- when both January unemployment rates were the highest.
  • 2011: 9.1% vs 16.2%
  • 2012: 8.3% vs 15.1%
  • 2013: 7.9% vs 14.4%
  • 2014: 6.6% vs 12.7%
Something to consider when the democrats are out there lying about the economy.

8 comments:

  1. Most of us have "known" this for years already without having these statistics to rely on. Thank you for presenting this information so clearly. Of course the discrepancy between "official" and "real" has been present all along -- it didn't just creep in with the OVOMIT Administration.

    Of course, it isn't just the number EMPLOYED that matters, it is the QUALITY of the jobs too many are being forced to take -- when and IF they can get a job at all.

    Too many former mid-to-high-level executives and formerly well-paid factory workers, whose jobs have been exported, are driving cabs, mowing lawns, flipping burgers, clerking in department stores, waiting on tables to make ends meet.

    BTW, in France the normal reported unemployment rate was about 13.5% the last time I looked. I imagine it's about the same throughout Socialist Europe and the British Isles, and GOD knows what it must be in Central and South America, the Middle East, Africa and S.E. Asia. High unemployment and meager standards of living are acceptable in Socialist countries.

    Most of us here in the USA have NO IDEA how terrible things are for most people all over the globe. Even our poorest people live at a much higher standard than average fok everywhere else.

    All you have to do to realize how lucky WE are is Google the price of REAL ESTATE in the international market. A lousy 450-square-foot fourth floor walk up apartment in a so-so neighborhood in Paris will cost you upwards of HALF a MILLION DOLLARS. I know that for a FACT.

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  2. Yes FT I am quite aware of the price of real estate in Europe.It only goes to show nothing really is free. We still have to catch up to Europe but one way or another we will pay.

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  3. Amazing how teagbaggers aren't constantly dizzy with all the spin they have to use to justify their own lies, lol.

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    2. Oh Pookie Toot-Toot, don't you have anything better to do than bending over and passing gas?

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  4. Haha,How's that hope and change working out for you?
    Did it lead you into the promised land?

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  5. Oh....I cant wait until tomorrow night....hell,I might even watch MSLSD just in case they start drinking Jonestown Kool Aide on air.

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  6. The report identifies the countries with the highest levels of happiness:

    Denmark
    Norway
    Switzerland
    Netherlands
    Sweden

    But don't let little things like facts get in the way of a good story.

    SOURCE

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